Don Cornelius
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  • Acworth, Ga
  • United States
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At 4:35pm on January 19, 2009, Dave Skolnick said…
I appreciate the compliment. I'm far from an expert on weather forecasting; I stand on the shoulders of giants. *grin* I did all my own routing and forecasting for a transatlantic voyage and did a lot of reading and studying in preparation. After I got back I took one of Lee Chesneau's three-day forecasting classes. I'm still waiting for him to offer the advanced class somewhere I can reasonably get to.

Resources: I look at the Ocean Prediction Center Atlantic Surface Analysis and the 24, 48, and 96 hour Surface Forecasts. Then I go back to the 500 mb analysis and forecasts for the same periods and try to understand how the forecasters came up with their forecasts. I'm starting to see varying degrees of conservatism in the various forecasters (their names are on the synoptic charts) and adjust for that based on my own personal judgment.

Unfortunately OPC doesn't show much below 17N and sometimes cuts off at 20N. There is a Surface Analysis for the tropics but the resolution isn't great. It does help me be aware of some big L or H skirting the ITCZ.

Then I do my forecast for what I expect to see. Once I have my forecast I look at what The National Hurricane Center Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch says in their text forecast and what Chris Parker says at Sometimes I listen to Herb Hilgenberg (Southbound II) on the SSB in the afternoon if I have the time and propagation is good. Where the professionals differ from my forecast I go back and try to see if they are considering something I missed and finalize my forecast. When mine differs from theirs sometimes mine is right and theirs is wrong, sometimes mine is wrong and theirs is right, and sometimes we are both wrong.

When I'm at sea I look at the gribs over e-mail in addition to all the OPC and NHC products over weather fax.

I still have a way to go before I'm ready to give up the crutch of sneaking a peek at the professionals work.

Other than radar and imagery (which I don't get much out of for forecasting) I stick with the Government products for raw data. Herb and Chris do their own work, but most of the on-line services are just repackaging the Government stuff.
At 1:28pm on January 19, 2009, Dave Skolnick said…
Thanks Don - I've been in direct contact with Sherry by e-mail but haven't been able to hear him on either frequency he is using. Glenn hears him but isn't licensed for land operation. It's a little frustrating. I just keep pumping the weather out ... *grin*
At 10:26am on January 19, 2009, Don Cornelius said…
Hi Dave, No, I've just been watching Sherry's posts on TTOL and plotting Rick's position from that. I understand he has left DR but don't have any position updates yet. I'll post his progress on TTOL when we get updates and use SeaKnots as the holder of my images.
At 6:28pm on January 18, 2009, Dave Skolnick said…
Hey Don. Are you getting Rick's position over SSB or picking it up off TTOL? I'm doing weather and sending it too him through Sherry but the position reports are greatly delayed by the time they get back to me.

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